Recently at a House Democrats retreat in Maryland, Vice President Joe Biden announced boldly that there is currently no Republican party. Biden immediately added that he wished there was a Republican party. Well Mr. Vice President, be careful what you wish for because the “spellbound” GOP may just have full control of Congress come November.
In the upcoming mid-term elections there are 36 senate seats and 36 governorships up for grabs. Gallup has researched that Democrats hold a 17-14 advantage compared to Republicans when it comes to states’ party preferences. To put this number in perspective, and why some believe the tide is turning in favor of Republican candidates in 2014, we have to look at how these numbers have changed since Obama took office. In 2008, Democrats had a remarkable 30 state lead over Republicans. The Republicans could have resurrected Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln and they still would’ve lost to the “Hope and Change” doctrine. This number had dwindled over Obama’s tenure as president, reflecting the trajectory of his approval ratings. Over 50 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Obama has done, looking to Obamacare’s abysmal start, revelations of NSA spying, and the IRS scandal as indications of poor leadership. Obama’s low approval rating could have a disastrous effect toward Democrats vying for election come November. Another issue Democrats need to worry about is voter turnout. A recent Pew Research poll has 63 percent of Republicans anticipating the mid-term elections, compared to 53 percent of Democrats. So, if numbers truly don’t lie, then the Democrats may just be looking at losing control of Congress in the near future.
Some key states have already developed intense races:
Alaska: Democrat incumbent Senator Mark Begich trails both possible GOP candidates by 6 points and his approval rating is only 41 percent.
Arkansas: Democrat incumbent Senator Mark Pryor is down 6 points and his approval rating is an anemic 37 percent.
Michigan: Republican Terri Lynn Land leads Democrat Gary Peters in a race to fill Democratic Senator Carl Levin’s seat. Peters is down by 5 points.
Vice President Joe Biden may be right that the GOP is fragmented and virtually non-existent in Washington’s day-to-day management. However, it doesn’t seem that the rest of the country has received the memo.